📊 Market Outlook & Fundamental Actionable Ideas – July 7, 2025

The global and domestic Stock Market Update mixed sentiments today, driven by trade policy delays, weak global cues, and cautious investor activity. While Indian equities closed slightly higher, the tone remains cautious as investors digest macroeconomic signals and prepare for upcoming earnings and policy announcements.

In this post, we’ll cover:

  • ✅ Global Market Overview
  • ✅ Indian Stock Market Recap
  • ✅ Stocks in the News
  • ✅ Top Fundamental Actionable Ideas
  • ✅ Technical Trend for Poonawalla Fincorp

Let’s dive into today’s fundamental outlook for July 7, 2025, and explore some well-researched stock picks to keep on your radar.

🌍 Global Market Overview: Weak Sentiment Persists

  • US Markets were closed on Friday due to a public holiday.
  • Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced that certain trade tariffs would be delayed from July 9 to August 1, providing temporary relief to markets.
  • European markets closed lower by up to -0.8%.
  • Dow Futures are currently trading -0.4% lower, indicating a drop of approximately 175 points.
  • Asian markets are trading -0.5% to -1% lower, reflecting risk-off sentiment.

Global Cues: Weak

Investors are treading cautiously amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff concerns, which could lead to volatility in the near term.

🇮🇳 Indian Market Recap – July 5, 2025

Indian equities ended the last session on a modestly positive note, although the session was marked by volatility and cautious buying. Markets are closely watching developments in the India-US trade deal as the revised tariff deadline approaches.

🔹 Key Market Numbers

  • Nifty 50 gained 56 points to close at 25,461 (+0.2%)
  • Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ended flat
  • GIFT Nifty is currently trading 30 points lower (-0.1%)

🔹 Institutional Activity

  • FIIs: -₹760 crore
  • DIIs: -₹1,028 crore

Domestic Cues: Flat

Cautious sentiment prevails domestically, as both FIIs and DIIs continued to remain net sellers.

📰 Stocks in News – July 7, 2025

1. Defence Sector – Drone Incentive Scheme

India is set to launch a ₹2,000 crore ($234 million) incentive scheme for civil and military drone manufacturers. This new 3-year plan is aimed at reducing import dependence and achieving 40% domestic component production by FY28.

Impact: Positive
Stocks to Watch: IdeaForge, Paras Defence, BEL

2. BEML – Export Order Win

BEML has secured two export orders worth $6.23 million for the supply of heavy-duty bulldozers and motor graders to Russia and Uzbekistan.

Impact: Positive

3. Jubilant FoodWorks – Strong Q1FY26 Pre-Update

  • Consolidated revenue up by 17% YoY to ₹22.6 billion
  • Domino’s India LFL growth: 11.6% YoY
  • Turkey operations saw a marginal decline of -2.2%

Impact: Positive

📌 Fundamental Actionable Stock Ideas

Here are three stocks we believe have solid long-term potential based on current fundamentals.

✅ 1. Petronet LNG (PLNG)

CMP: ₹300
Target Price: ₹410
Upside: 37%
Call: Buy (Upgraded)
Type: MTF Stock

📈 Investment Rationale:

  • Market is overly pessimistic, assuming a 20% tariff cut in FY28 with no tariff hike or terminal growth.
  • Competing terminals operate at low utilization (14-43%) and have higher capital costs, making Dahej terminal more attractive.
  • Even if tariff cuts happen, PLNG’s economies of scale and connectivity keep it in a favorable position.
  • Valuations attractive at 9.7x FY27 P/E and a 4% dividend yield.

View: Upgrade to Buy, DCF-based target of ₹410.

✅ 2. 360 One (Formerly IIFL Wealth)

CMP: ₹1,242
Target Price: ₹1,400
Upside: 13%
Call: Buy
Type: MTF Stock

📈 Investment Rationale:

  • Received NSE approval for acquisition of Credit Suisse Securities India’s broking and distribution business.
  • Expanding across mass affluent client segments and Tier 2/3 cities.
  • Collaborating with UBS to scale international presence.
  • Execution of multiple ongoing projects (ET Money, B&K acquisition) will be key.

View: Strong buy for investors with 1-2 year horizon.

✅ 3. Poonawalla Fincorp

CMP: ₹480
Target Price: ₹545
Stop Loss: ₹448
Upside: 12%
Call: Buy

📊 Key Triggers:

  • AUM growth of 52.9% YoY, reaching ₹41,250 Cr.
  • Strong performance in secured lending, especially LAP and MSME loans.
  • Launched 6 new businesses (including gold loans, CV finance, education loans).
  • Strong liquidity of ₹4,450 Cr ensures healthy growth.

📉 Technical View:

  • Stock continues to respect its 20 DEMA, with increasing volumes on up moves.
  • ADX indicator confirms bullish trend continuation.

View: Technically and fundamentally strong for medium-term swing trades.

🔍 Final Thoughts: What Should Investors Do?

With global markets sending weak signals and the India-US trade situation still uncertain, volatility is likely to persist in the near term. However, well-managed companies with structural growth stories are likely to outperform.

Our picks—Petronet LNG, 360 One, and Poonawalla Fincorp—offer a strong mix of value, growth, and execution potential. Investors should stay focused on companies with resilient earnings, sector tailwinds, and strong governance.

⚠️ Disclaimer:

Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme-related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational and informational purposes only.